Expected Rates of Select Adverse Events After Immunization for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Safety Monitoring

Abstract

Using meta-analytic methods, we calculated expected rates of 20 potential adverse events of special interest (AESI) that would occur after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination within 1-, 7-, and 42-day intervals without causal associations. Based on these expected rates, if 10 000 000 persons are vaccinated, (1) 0.5, 3.7, and 22.5 Guillain-Barre syndrome cases, (2) 0.3, 2.4, and 14.3 myopericarditis cases, (3) and 236.5, 1655.5, and 9932.8 all-cause deaths would occur coincidentally within 1, 7, and 42 days postvaccination, respectively. Expected rates of potential AESI can contextualize events associated temporally with immunization, aid in safety signal detection, guide COVID-19 vaccine health communications, and inform COVID-19 vaccine benefit-risk assessments.

Keywords: COVID-19; adverse events; background rates; vaccination; vaccine safety.