Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Charles I Jones

doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104318

Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities

J Econ Dyn Control. 2022 Jul:140:104318. doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104318. Epub 2022 Jan 29.

Authors

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde¹, Charles I Jones²

Affiliations

¹ University of Pennsylvania.
² Stanford GSB.

Abstract

We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and other regions and countries to estimate, quickly and with limited data, a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible scenarios for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening.