How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

Jessica Clark; Wilma A Stolk; María-Gloria Basáñez; Luc E Coffeng; Zulma M Cucunubá; Matthew A Dixon; Louise Dyson; Katie Hampson; Michael Marks; Graham F Medley; Timothy M Pollington; Joaquin M Prada; Kat S Rock; Henrik Salje; Jaspreet Toor; T Déirdre Hollingsworth

doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.13327.2

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

Gates Open Res. 2022 Feb 2:5:112. doi: 10.12688/gatesopenres.13327.2. eCollection 2021.

Authors

Jessica Clark^{1

2}, Wilma A Stolk³, María-Gloria Basáñez^{4

5}, Luc E Coffeng³, Zulma M Cucunubá^{4

5}, Matthew A Dixon^{5

6}, Louise Dyson^{7

8}, Katie Hampson², Michael Marks^{9

10}, Graham F Medley¹¹, Timothy M Pollington^{1

7}, Joaquin M Prada¹², Kat S Rock⁷, Henrik Salje¹³, Jaspreet Toor⁵, T Déirdre Hollingsworth¹

Affiliations

¹ Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK.
² Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary & Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK.
³ Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, 3000 CA, The Netherlands.
⁴ London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK.
⁵ MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK.
⁶ Schistosomiasis Control Initiative Foundation, London, SE11 5DP, UK.
⁷ Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
⁸ School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
⁹ Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
¹⁰ Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
¹¹ Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
¹² School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7AL, UK.
¹³ Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EH, UK.

Abstract

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

Keywords: Cross-cutting; Elimination; Mathematical; NTD; Public Health; Statistical; Targets; Transmission.

Abstract

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