COVID-19 mortality prediction in the intensive care unit with deep learning based on longitudinal chest X-rays and clinical data

Abstract

Objectives: We aimed to develop deep learning models using longitudinal chest X-rays (CXRs) and clinical data to predict in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients in the intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods: Six hundred fifty-four patients (212 deceased, 442 alive, 5645 total CXRs) were identified across two institutions. Imaging and clinical data from one institution were used to train five longitudinal transformer-based networks applying five-fold cross-validation. The models were tested on data from the other institution, and pairwise comparisons were used to determine the best-performing models.

Results: A higher proportion of deceased patients had elevated white blood cell count, decreased absolute lymphocyte count, elevated creatine concentration, and incidence of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease. A model based on pre-ICU CXRs achieved an AUC of 0.632 and an accuracy of 0.593, and a model based on ICU CXRs achieved an AUC of 0.697 and an accuracy of 0.657. A model based on all longitudinal CXRs (both pre-ICU and ICU) achieved an AUC of 0.702 and an accuracy of 0.694. A model based on clinical data alone achieved an AUC of 0.653 and an accuracy of 0.657. The addition of longitudinal imaging to clinical data in a combined model significantly improved performance, reaching an AUC of 0.727 (p = 0.039) and an accuracy of 0.732.

Conclusions: The addition of longitudinal CXRs to clinical data significantly improves mortality prediction with deep learning for COVID-19 patients in the ICU.

Key points: • Deep learning was used to predict mortality in COVID-19 ICU patients. • Serial radiographs and clinical data were used. • The models could inform clinical decision-making and resource allocation.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence; Coronavirus; Hospital mortality; Machine learning; Prognosis.