Objective: To analyze the factors affecting the live birth outcome of D3 cleavage stage frozen-thawed embryos after overnight culture, and establish a nomogram model to predict the live birth probability. Methods: The clinical data of assisted reproductive patients treated with D3 cleavage stage frozen-thawed embryo transfer in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2017 to July 2020 were analyzed retrospectively. A total of 5 456 patients were divided into modeling group and validation group according to the ratio of 7∶3. The modeling group [3 831 patients with average age of (33±6) years] was used to evaluate the independent risk factors of the patient's live birth outcome through multivariate logistic regression analysis and construct the nomogram prediction model. The validation group [1 625 patients with average age of (33±6) years] was used to verify and calibrate the performance of the model. Results: The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the risk factors related to live birth outcome of D3 frozen-thawed embryos after overnight culture included: female age (OR=0.901,95%CI:0.889-0.914,P<0.001), body mass index (BMI) (OR=0.979,95%CI:0.957-1.002,P=0.072), endometrial thickness on the transfer day (OR=1.121,95%CI:1.080-1.164,P<0.001), the number of transferred embryos (OR=2.192,95%CI:1.867-2.579,P<0.001) and embryo division resumed after overnight culture (OR=1.405,95%CI:1.213-1.627,P<0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram model in the modeling group was 0.716 and that in the validation group was 0.739.Both sets of calibration curves fited well with the ideal curve, which illustrated that the model had good predictive ability. Conclusions: The female age, BMI endometrial thickness on the transfer day, the number of transferred embryos and the embryo division resumed after overnight culture are risk factors for the live birth outcome of frozen-thawed embryos after overnight culture. The nomogram established based on the above factors can help predict the probability of live birth after frozen-thawed embryo transfer.
目的： 对影响冷冻D3卵裂期胚胎解冻后行过夜培养移植活产结局的相关因素进行分析，根据其中的独立因素，建立预测冷冻D3胚胎解冻后行过夜培养移植的活产概率的列线图模型。 方法： 回顾性分析2017年1月至2020年7月郑州大学第一附属医院5 456例接受冻融D3卵裂期胚胎移植患者的临床资料。按7∶3的比例将患者分为建模组和验证组：建模组3 831例，年龄（33±6）岁，用于构建列线图，通过多因素logistic回归分析评价患者活产结局的风险因素，根据回归系数绘制相应的列线图预测模型；验证组1 625例，年龄（33±6）岁，用于检验和校准模型的性能。 结果： 多因素logistic回归分析结果显示，与冷冻D3卵裂期胚胎解冻后行过夜培养移植的活产结局相关的风险因素包括：女方年龄（OR=0.901，95%CI：0.889~0.914，P<0.001）、体质指数（BMI）（OR=0.979，95%CI：0.957~1.002，P=0.072）、移植日子宫内膜厚度（OR=1.121，95%CI：1.080~1.164，P<0.001）、移植胚胎数目（OR=2.192，95%CI：1.867~2.579，P<0.001）、过夜培养后胚胎恢复分裂情况（OR=1.405，95%CI：1.213~1.627，P<0.001）。建立的列线图模型在建模组中的曲线下面积（AUC）为0.716，在验证组中的AUC为0.739，两组校准曲线与理想曲线拟合均较好，具有良好的预测能力。 结论： 女方年龄、BMI、移植日子宫内膜厚度、移植胚胎数目、过夜培养后胚胎恢复分裂是冷冻胚胎解冻后过夜培养移植活产结局的风险因素，根据上述风险因素建立的列线图有助于预测冻融D3卵裂期胚胎移植术后活产的概率。.