Background: Gemcitabine together with nab-paclitaxel (GnP) has been shown to improve outcomes in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, the predictive markers for treatment effects remain unclear. This study aimed to identify early prognostic factors in patients with PDAC receiving GnP.
Patients and methods: We analyzed 113 patients who received GnP for PDAC and evaluated the relationship between clinical factors and outcomes.
Results: The median survival time (MST) was 1.2 years. In multivariate analysis, baseline carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) ≥747 U/ml [hazard ratio (HR)=1.9], baseline controlling nutrition status (CONUT) score ≥5 (HR=3.7) and changing rate of CA19-9 after two GnP cycles ≥0.69 (HR=3.7) were independent risk factors for poor prognosis. When examining outcomes according to pre-chemotherapeutic measurable factors (baseline CA19-9 and CONUT), the MSTs of patients with pre-chemotherapeutic zero risk factors (pre-low-risk group, n=63) and one or more risk factors (pre-high-risk group, n=50) were 1.7 and 0.65 years (p<0.001), respectively. The MST for those with a changing rate of CA19-9 after two GnP cycles <0.69 and ≥0.69 was significantly different in both groups (2.0 and 1.2 years in the pre-low-risk group, p<0.001; 1.0 and 0.52 years in the pre-high-risk group, p<0.001).
Conclusion: These results may be useful for decision-making regarding treatment strategies in patients with PDAC receiving GnP.
Keywords: CA19-9 antigen; chemotherapy; nutrition status; paclitaxel; risk factors.
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