Climate Change, Drought and Rural Suicide in New South Wales, Australia: Future Impact Scenario Projections to 2099

Ivan C Hanigan; Timothy B Chaston

doi:10.3390/ijerph19137855

Climate Change, Drought and Rural Suicide in New South Wales, Australia: Future Impact Scenario Projections to 2099

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jun 27;19(13):7855. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19137855.

Authors

Ivan C Hanigan^{1

2}, Timothy B Chaston^{2

3}

Affiliations

¹ WHO Collaborating Centre for Environmental Health Impact Assessment, School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, WA 6102, Australia.
² University Centre for Rural Health, Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
³ Environment Protection Authority Victoria, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia.

Abstract

Mental health problems are associated with droughts, and suicide is one of the most tragic outcomes. We estimated the numbers of suicides attributable to drought under possible climate change scenarios for the future years until 2099, based on the historical baseline period 1970-2007. Drought and rural suicide data from the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) were analyzed for the baseline data period. Three global climate models and two representative concentration pathways were used to assess the range of potential future outcomes. Drought-related suicides increased among rural men aged 10-29 and 30-49 yrs in all modelled climate change scenarios. Rural males aged over 50 yrs and young rural females (10-29) showed no increased suicide risk, whereas decreased suicide rates were predicted for rural women of 30-49 and 50-plus years of age, suggesting resilience (according to the baseline historical relationship in those population sub-groups). No association between suicide and drought was identified in urban populations in the baseline data. Australian droughts are expected to increase in duration and intensity as climate change progresses. Hence, estimates of impacts, such as increased rural suicide rates, can inform mitigation and adaptation strategies that will help prepare communities for the effects of climate change.

Keywords: climate change scenario; drought; mental health; rainfall; vulnerable populations; wellbeing.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Australia
Climate Change
Droughts*
Female
Humans
Male
New South Wales / epidemiology
Rural Population
Suicide*

Grants and funding

This research was supported by the Air-Health-Data project (https://doi.org/10.47486/PS022, accessed on 14 June 2022) that received funding from the Australian Research Data Commons (ARDC). The ARDC is funded by the Australian National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS). Funding support was also provided from the Australian National Data Services (ANDS) Project Code: AP07 ‘A Scientific Workflow System for Assessing and Projecting the Health Impacts of Extreme Weather Events’. This project has been assisted by the New South Wales Government Department of Planning and Environment (DPE) and NSW Ministry of Health via the Human Health and Social Impacts (HHSI) Node of the NSW Adaptation Research Hub, a collaboration between The University of Sydney, and other leading universities and experts in climate change impacts and adaptation science. Data analysis was enabled by CoESRA (https://coesra.tern.org.au/, accessed on 14 June 2022) and the NHMRC Centre for Air pollution, energy and health Research (CAR) and “CARDAT” data platform (https://cardat.github.io/, accessed on 14 June 2022). Financial support for development of the drought index was provided by Professor Tony McMichael’s “Australia Fellowship” from the National Health and Medical Research Council, via the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University.