Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against Omicron and Delta variants in a matched test-negative case-control study among US veterans

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the effectiveness of messenger RNA (mRNA) booster doses during the period of Delta and Omicron variant dominance.

Design: We conducted a matched test-negative case-control study to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of three and two doses of mRNA vaccines against infection (regardless of symptoms) and against COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death.

Setting: Veterans Health Administration.

Participants: We used electronic health record data from 114 640 veterans who had a SARS-CoV-2 test during November 2021-January 2022. Patients were largely 65 years or older (52%), male (88%) and non-Hispanic white (59%).

Main outcome measures: First positive result for a SARS-CoV-2 PCR or antigen test.

Results: Against infection, booster doses had higher estimated VE (64%, 95% CI 63 to 65) than two-dose vaccination (12%, 95% CI 10 to 15) during the Omicron period. For the Delta period, the VE against infection was 90% (95% CI 88 to 92) among boosted vaccinees, higher than the VE among two-dose vaccinees (54%, 95% CI 50 to 57). Against hospitalisation, booster dose VE was 89% (95% CI 88 to 91) during Omicron and 94% (95% CI 90 to 96) during Delta; two-dose VE was 63% (95% CI 58 to 67) during Omicron and 75% (95% CI 69 to 80) during Delta. Against death, the VE with a booster dose was 94% (95% CI 90 to 96) during Omicron and 96% (95% CI 87 to 99) during Delta.

Conclusions: Among an older, mostly male, population with comorbidities, we found that an mRNA vaccine booster was highly effective against infection, hospitalisation and death. Although the effectiveness of booster vaccination against infection was moderately higher against Delta than against the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant, effectiveness against severe disease and death was similarly high against both variants.

Keywords: epidemiology; immunology; public health.