Temporal trend in mortality of cardiovascular diseases and its contribution to life expectancy increase in China, 2013 to 2018

Abstract

Backgrounds: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of deaths nationwide. However, little is understood about its temporal trend and corresponding influence on longevity improvements. We aimed to describe the updated tendency in CVD mortality and to quantify its impact on life expectancy (LE) increase in China.

Methods: All-cause mortality rates were calculated with population sizes from the National Bureau of Statistics and death counts from the National Health Commission. We estimated CVD mortality rates by allocating age- and sex-based mortality envelopes to each CVD subtype based on its proportion derived from the Disease Surveillance Points system. The probability of CVD premature deaths and LE were calculated with life tables and we adopted Arriaga's method to quantitate age- and cause-specific contributions to LE gains.

Results: During 2013 to 2018, the age-standardized mortality rate of CVD decreased from 289.69 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 289.03, 290.35)/100,000 to 272.37 (95%CI: 271.81, 272.94)/100,000, along with a decline in probability of CVD premature deaths from 9.05% (95%CI: 9.02%, 9.09%) to 8.13% (95%CI: 8.10%, 8.16%). The gap in CVD mortality across sexes expanded with more remarkable declines in females, especially for those aged 15 to 64 years. Among major subtypes, the probability of premature deaths from hemorrhage stroke declined fastest, while improvements of ischemic stroke and ischemic heart disease were limited, and there was an increase in stroke sequelae. LE in China reached 77.04 (95%CI: 76.96, 77.12) years in 2018 with an increase of 1.38 years from 2013. Of the total LE gains, 21.15% (0.29 years) were attributed to reductions of CVD mortality in the overall population, mostly driven by those aged >65 years.

Conclusions: The general process in reducing CVD mortality has contributed to longevity improvements in China. More attention should be paid to prevention and control of atherosclerotic CVD and stroke sequelae, especially for the elderly. Working-age males also deserve additional attention due to inadequate improvements.