Entering the Third Decade After Kidney Transplantation: Excellent Graft Function Refers to Superior Graft but Not Patient Survival

Abstract

Kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) with ultralong-term survival represent a growing, yet insufficiently studied patient cohort. In this single-center retrospective study, we analyzed 248 ultralong-term survivors (≥20 years). KTRs were classified into those with superior graft function (defined as eGFR ≥45 ml/min + proteinuria ≤300 mg/day + eGFR-slope ≤ 2 ml/min/1.73 m²/year) and inferior graft function regarding the risk of CKD progression. 20 years post-transplant, median eGFR was 54 ml/min (11-114), proteinuria 200 mg/24 h (0-7,620), eGFR decline 0.45 ml/min/1.73 m²/year (11.7 6.5) and DSA had been detected in 19.7% of KTRs. We identified 96 KTRs (38.7%) with superior (group 1) and 152 KTRs (61.3%) with inferior graft function (group 2). Donation after cardiac death, female sex, glomerulonephritis as primary disease, and early TCMR were independently associated with inferior graft function. Graft survival was significantly better in group 1 compared to group 2 (LogRank, p < 0.001). Besides group affiliation (HR 20.515, p = 0.003), multivariable analysis identified DSA development (HR 3.081, p = 0.023) and donor age (HR 1.032, p = 0.024) as independent factors. Interestingly, there was no significant difference in patient survival (LogRank, p = 0.350). In ultralong-term survivors, excellent graft function refers to superior graft survival but does not extend ultimate patient survival. DSA-formation should be taken seriously even in the ultralong-term.

Keywords: TCMR; de novo DSA; kidney allograft function; kidney transplantation; survival.