Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a common and progressive spinal deformity in children that exhibits striking sexual dimorphism, with girls at more than five-fold greater risk of severe disease compared to boys. Despite its medical impact, the molecular mechanisms that drive AIS are largely unknown. We previously defined a female-specific AIS genetic risk locus in an enhancer near the PAX1 gene. Here we sought to define the roles of PAX1 and newly-identified AIS-associated genes in the developmental mechanism of AIS. In a genetic study of 10,519 individuals with AIS and 93,238 unaffected controls, significant association was identified with a variant in COL11A1 encoding collagen (α1) XI (rs3753841; NM_080629.2_c.4004C>T; p.(Pro1335Leu); P=7.07e-11, OR=1.118). Using CRISPR mutagenesis we generated Pax1 knockout mice (Pax1-/-). In postnatal spines we found that PAX1 and collagen (α1) XI protein both localize within the intervertebral disc (IVD)-vertebral junction region encompassing the growth plate, with less collagen (α1) XI detected in Pax1-/- spines compared to wildtype. By genetic targeting we found that wildtype Col11a1 expression in costal chondrocytes suppresses expression of Pax1 and of Mmp3, encoding the matrix metalloproteinase 3 enzyme implicated in matrix remodeling. However, this suppression was abrogated in the presence of the AIS-associated COL11A1P1335L mutant. Further, we found that either knockdown of the estrogen receptor gene Esr2, or tamoxifen treatment, significantly altered Col11a1 and Mmp3 expression in chondrocytes. We propose a new molecular model of AIS pathogenesis wherein genetic variation and estrogen signaling increase disease susceptibility by altering a Pax1-Col11a1-Mmp3 signaling axis in spinal chondrocytes.