Tumor Radiomic Features on Pretreatment MRI to Predict Response to Lenvatinib plus an Anti-PD-1 Antibody in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multicenter Study

Abstract

Introduction: Lenvatinib plus an anti-PD-1 antibody has shown promising antitumor effects in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but with clinical benefit limited to a subset of patients. We developed and validated a radiomic-based model to predict objective response to this combination therapy in advanced HCC patients.

Methods: Patients (N = 170) who received first-line combination therapy with lenvatinib plus an anti-PD-1 antibody were retrospectively enrolled from 9 Chinese centers; 124 and 46 into the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Radiomic features were extracted from pretreatment contrast-enhanced MRI. After feature selection, clinicopathologic, radiomic, and clinicopathologic-radiomic models were built using a neural network. The performance of models, incremental predictive value of radiomic features compared with clinicopathologic features and relationship between radiomic features and survivals were assessed.

Results: The clinicopathologic model modestly predicted objective response with an AUC of 0.748 (95% CI: 0.656-0.840) and 0.702 (95% CI: 0.547-0.884) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The radiomic model predicted response with an AUC of 0.886 (95% CI: 0.815-0.957) and 0.820 (95% CI: 0.648-0.984), respectively, with good calibration and clinical utility. The incremental predictive value of radiomic features to clinicopathologic features was confirmed with a net reclassification index of 47.9% (p < 0.001) and 41.5% (p = 0.025) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Furthermore, radiomic features were associated with overall survival and progression-free survival both in the training and validation cohorts, but modified albumin-bilirubin grade and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were not.

Conclusion: Radiomic features extracted from pretreatment MRI can predict individualized objective response to combination therapy with lenvatinib plus an anti-PD-1 antibody in patients with unresectable or advanced HCC, provide incremental predictive value over clinicopathologic features, and are associated with overall survival and progression-free survival after initiation of this combination regimen.

Keywords: Anti-PD-1 antibody; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Lenvatinib; Prediction; Radiomics.