Real-World Progression-Free Survival as an Endpoint in Lung Cancer: Replicating Atezolizumab and Docetaxel Arms of the OAK Trial Using Real-World Data

Abstract

Evaluating cancer treatments in real-world data (RWD) requires informative endpoints. This study replicated the atezolizumab and docetaxel arms of the OAK trial using RWD and compared progression-free survival (PFS) outcomes derived from abstracted physician's notes in RWD (rwPFS) against PFS outcomes derived from the clinical trial PFS (ctPFS). Atezolizumab and docetaxel arms of the phase III OAK randomized controlled trial (RCT; NCT02008227) were replicated in a US nationwide real-world database using selected OAK inclusion/exclusion criteria and propensity score-based adjustment for baseline prognostic variables. Concordance of outcomes was assessed using Kaplan-Meier medians and hazard ratios (HRs). The RWD cohorts comprised 133 patients on atezolizumab and 479 patients on docetaxel. After adjustment, prognostic variables were balanced between RCT arms and corresponding RWD cohorts. The rwPFS and ctPFS outcomes showed better concordance for docetaxel (2.99 vs. 3.52 months; HR: 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85-1.15) than for atezolizumab (3.71 vs. 2.76 months; HR: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.61-1.02). Excluding events labeled "pseudo-progression" from both RWD and RCT improved concordance for atezolizumab (4.24 vs. 4.14 months; HR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.70-1.25). These findings were robust across sensitivity analyses. Replicating RCTs using RWD and comparing outcomes can help characterize RWD endpoints. Similarity of results between rwPFS and ctPFS at the cohort level may depend on drug category, highlighting the need for further studies to verify and understand when the corresponding outcomes can be compared, including within the same patient.