Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of autoimmune diseases in women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2019

Abstract

Aim: To estimate the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of autoimmune diseases including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), multiple sclerosis (MS), type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), asthma, and psoriasis in women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2019, and to further analyze their changing trends, at global, regional, and national levels.

Methods: Women of childbearing age was defined as 15-49 years old. The estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for case number of RA, IBD, MS, T1DM, asthma and psoriasis in seven age groups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49 years) were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Age standardization by direct method was adopted to estimate the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of these autoimmune diseases in women of childbearing age. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to analyze the changing trends of estimated age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 by calculating the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results: In 2019, the estimated global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of RA in women of childbearing age was 17.13 (95% UI: 12.39 to 22.60), 215.86 (95% UI: 179.04 to 259.70), and 0.06 (95% UI: 0.04 to 0.08); of IBD was 5.85 (95% UI: 4.72 to 7.12), 63.54 (95% UI: 53.50 to 74.37), and 0.11 (95% UI: 0.08 to 0.13); of MS was 1.63 (95% UI: 1.05 to 2.28), 28.74 (95% UI: 23.80 to 34.46), and 0.17 (95% UI: 0.14 to 0.27); of T1DM was 6.22 (95% UI: 2.75 to 11.50), 290.51 (95% UI: 221.39 to 370.19), and 0.63 (95% UI: 0.48 to 0.78); of asthma was 291.14 (95% UI: 157.06 to 468.78), 2796.25 (95%UI: 1987.07 to 3842.97), and 1.42 (95% UI: 1.12 to 1.75), respectively. The estimated global age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of psoriasis in women of childbearing age was 58.68 (95% UI: 51.04 to 66.85) and 477.20 (95% UI: 440.30 to 515.76). Highest disease burden generally exists in Region of the Americas and European Region. From 1990 to 2019, the estimated global age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of RA (AAPC: 0.18, 95% CI: 0.11 to 0.24; AAPC: 0.24, 95% CI: 0.18 to 0.30) and T1DM (AAPC: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.40 to 1.54; AAPC: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.79 to 0.88) in women of childbearing age showed significantly increasing trends whereas those of IBD (AAPC: -0.76, 95% CI: -0.80 to -0.73; AAPC: -0.65, 95% CI: -0.70 to -0.60), MS (AAPC: -0.20, 95% CI: -0.23 to -0.16; AAPC: -0.25, 95% CI: -0.26 to -0.23), asthma (AAPC: -0.53, 95% CI: -0.60 to -0.47; AAPC: -0.74, 95% CI: -0.81 to -0.68), and psoriasis (AAPC: -0.83, 95% CI: -0.85 to -0.82; AAPC: -0.99, 95% CI: -1.02 to -0.96) showed significantly decreasing trends. Favorably, the estimated global age-standardized mortality rate of RA (AAPC: -1.32, 95% CI: -1.63 to -1.01), IBD (AAPC: -0.95, 95% CI: -1.06 to -0.84), MS (AAPC: -0.96, 95% CI: -1.12 to -0.80), T1DM (AAPC: -1.05, 95% CI: -1.21 to -0.89), and asthma (AAPC: -2.27, 95% CI: -2.34 to -2.19) in women of childbearing age all declined. The changing trends of estimated age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates varied significantly across 204 countries and territories.

Conclusions: Our study provides an accurate estimation on the age-standardization of disease indicators of autoimmune diseases in women of childbearing age. There are remarkable disparities in the incidence, prevalence, and mortality burden related to autoimmune diseases in women of childbearing age, as well as their changing trends across the world, suggesting that each individual government should establish flexible health policies and make reasonable source allocation to address different needs for autoimmune diseases in this population.

Keywords: Age standardization; Autoimmune diseases; Incidence; Mortality; Prevalence; Women of childbearing age.