Combining uncertainty-aware predictive modeling and a bedtime Smart Snack intervention to prevent nocturnal hypoglycemia in people with type 1 diabetes on multiple daily injections

Abstract

Objective: Nocturnal hypoglycemia is a known challenge for people with type 1 diabetes, especially for physically active individuals or those on multiple daily injections. We developed an evidential neural network (ENN) to predict at bedtime the probability and timing of nocturnal hypoglycemia (0-4 vs 4-8 h after bedtime) based on several glucose metrics and physical activity patterns. We utilized these predictions in silico to prescribe bedtime carbohydrates with a Smart Snack intervention specific to the predicted minimum nocturnal glucose and timing of nocturnal hypoglycemia.

Materials and methods: We leveraged free-living datasets collected from 366 individuals from the T1DEXI Study and Glooko. Inputs to the ENN used to model nocturnal hypoglycemia were derived from demographic information, continuous glucose monitoring, and physical activity data. We assessed the accuracy of the ENN using area under the receiver operating curve, and the clinical impact of the Smart Snack intervention through simulations.

Results: The ENN achieved an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.80 and 0.71 to predict nocturnal hypoglycemic events during 0-4 and 4-8 h after bedtime, respectively, outperforming all evaluated baseline methods. Use of the Smart Snack intervention reduced probability of nocturnal hypoglycemia from 23.9 ± 14.1% to 14.0 ± 13.3% and duration from 7.4 ± 7.0% to 2.4 ± 3.3% in silico.

Discussion: Our findings indicate that the ENN-based Smart Snack intervention has the potential to significantly reduce the frequency and duration of nocturnal hypoglycemic events.

Conclusion: A decision support system that combines prediction of minimum nocturnal glucose and proactive recommendations for bedtime carbohydrate intake might effectively prevent nocturnal hypoglycemia and reduce the burden of glycemic self-management.

Keywords: artificial intelligence; evidential regression; multiple daily injections; nocturnal hypoglycemia; type 1 diabetes mellitus.