Climate-driven growth dynamics and trend reversal of Fagus sylvatica L. and Quercus cerris L. in a low-elevation beech forest in Central Italy

Abstract

In highly climate-change-sensitive regions, such as the Mediterranean, increasing knowledge of climate-driven growth dynamics is required for habitat conservation and forecasting species adaptability under future climate change. In this study, we test a high spectrum of climatic signals, not only monthly and seasonal but also on a multi-year scale and include the single tree analysis to answer this issue, focusing on a low-elevation thermophilic old-growth beech forest surrounding the Bracciano Lake in Central Italy. Through a dendroecological and isotope analysis, we evaluate both short- and long-term sensitivity of F. sylvatica and the coexisting better-drought-adapted species Q. cerris to climatic and hydrological variability in terms of growth reduction and δ^13C responses. After the 1990s, beech trees showed a climate-driven decrease in growth compared to oak, especially after 2003 (-20 % of basal area increment), with a significant growth trend reversal between the species. For F. sylvatica, the significant correlations with precipitation decreased, whereas for Q. cerris, they increased, with a higher number of trees positively influenced. However, the temperature highlighted more clearly the contrasting climate-growth correlation pattern between the two species. In F. sylvatica after the '90s, the negative effect of temperatures has significantly intensified, as shown by past summer values up to four years previously, involving about half of the trees. Surprisingly, the water-level fluctuations showed a highly significant influence on tree-ring growth in both species. Nevertheless, it reduced after the '90s. Finally, Q. cerris trees showed a significantly higher ability to recover their growth levels after extreme droughts (+55 %). The growth trend reversal and the shift in iWUE of the last years may point to potential changes in the future species composition, raising the need for climate-adaptive silviculture (e.g., selective thinning) to reduce growth decline, enhance resilience and favour the natural regeneration of the target species for habitat conservation.

Keywords: Carbon stable isotope; Climate warming; Climate-growth relationships; Dendroecology; Tree-rings analysis.