Use of CMIP6 scenarios as a reference to understand the responses of macrophyte germination and seedling growth to future warming and allelopathy co-stressors

Abstract

The application of appropriate references such as CMIP6 climate scenarios for benchmarking studies of climate change on ecosystems can promote consistency among different climate change research. However, the use of CMIP6 climate scenarios is not common among experiments on the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems. Also, little is known about the impact of ecological factor such as allelopathy of alien species on macrophyte germination and seedling growth under different climate scenarios. In our study, by simulating three annual mean temperature changes at global warming levels of 1.5 °C (low warming scenario), 2 °C (medium warming scenario) and 4 °C (high warming scenario) corresponding to CMIP6 multi-model mean change at the corresponding global warming level, we conducted a mesocosm experiment to investigate their possible effects of different climate scenarios and allelopathy co-stressors on macrophyte germination and seedling growth. Our study showed that three warming scenarios all can facilitate macrophyte propagule germination and seedling growth, but the effect paths vary with CMIP6 warming scenarios and there are more influence pathways under high warming scenarios than under low and medium warming scenarios. Higher aqueous extract concentrations of Eichhornia crassipes can significantly stimulate macrophyte propagule germination and seedling growth. And the medium and high warming scenarios may exacerbate the impacts of allelopathic substances on macrophyte germination and seedling growth, and their effects depend on the combination of the two stressors. These results indicated that medium- and high-temperature scenarios may have greater ecological effects on macrophytes than low-temperature scenarios. Thus, our results highlighted that future climate studies need proper benchmarks such as CMIP6 warming scenarios, because it can provide relatively more accurate and realistic simulations, valid comparative results, comprehensive understanding and supportive coordination among researchers.

Keywords: Allelopathy; CMIP6; Freshwater ecosystem; Global warming; Macrophyte.