A simulation-based method to inform serosurvey design for estimating the force of infection using existing blood samples

PLoS Comput Biol. 2023 Nov 27;19(11):e1011666. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011666. eCollection 2023 Nov.

Abstract

The extent to which dengue virus has been circulating globally and especially in Africa is largely unknown. Testing available blood samples from previous cross-sectional serological surveys offers a convenient strategy to investigate past dengue infections, as such serosurveys provide the ideal data to reconstruct the age-dependent immunity profile of the population and to estimate the average per-capita annual risk of infection: the force of infection (FOI), which is a fundamental measure of transmission intensity. In this study, we present a novel methodological approach to inform the size and age distribution of blood samples to test when samples are acquired from previous surveys. The method was used to inform SERODEN, a dengue seroprevalence survey which is currently being conducted in Ghana among other countries utilizing samples previously collected for a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey. The method described in this paper can be employed to determine sample sizes and testing strategies for different diseases and transmission settings.

MeSH terms

  • Antibodies, Viral
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Dengue*
  • Ghana / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • SARS-CoV-2*
  • Seroepidemiologic Studies

Substances

  • Antibodies, Viral