The dynamic effect of macroeconomic factors on housing prices: Evidence from South Africa

PLoS One. 2023 Nov 29;18(11):e0290552. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290552. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic short- and long-run causal relationship between South African real house prices and key macroeconomic fundamentals (gross domestic product(GDP), mortgage rate, exchange rate-USDZAR, affordability, household debt to disposable income, unemployment rate, share prices (JSE ALL share index), foreign direct investment, and producer price index) over the period 2000Q1-2019Q4. The study uses a vector error correction model (VECM) to estimate the relationships while accounting for endogeneity and reverse causality. Although, there seems to be a significant association(both short and long-run) between house prices and all macroeconomic fundamental variables, GDP and producer price index appear to have the greatest impact. Further, our results suggest that any short-term disequilibrium in house prices always self-corrects in the long-run.

MeSH terms

  • Family Characteristics
  • Gross Domestic Product
  • Housing*
  • Income*
  • South Africa

Grants and funding

Godfrey Ndlovu would like to gratefully acknowledge the funding from the University of Cape Town and the National Research Foundation-Thuthuka Grant, research grant number 461186 and 138305; respectively. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.