The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy

Sara L Loo; Emily Howerton; Lucie Contamin; Claire P Smith; Rebecca K Borchering; Luke C Mullany; Samantha Bents; Erica Carcelen; Sung-Mok Jung; Tiffany Bogich; Willem G van Panhuis; Jessica Kerr; Jessi Espino; Katie Yan; Harry Hochheiser; Michael C Runge; Katriona Shea; Justin Lessler; Cécile Viboud; Shaun Truelove

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100738

The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy

Epidemics. 2024 Mar:46:100738. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100738. Epub 2023 Dec 29.

Authors

Sara L Loo¹, Emily Howerton², Lucie Contamin³, Claire P Smith⁴, Rebecca K Borchering², Luke C Mullany⁵, Samantha Bents⁶, Erica Carcelen⁷, Sung-Mok Jung⁸, Tiffany Bogich², Willem G van Panhuis⁹, Jessica Kerr³, Jessi Espino¹⁰, Katie Yan², Harry Hochheiser¹⁰, Michael C Runge¹¹, Katriona Shea², Justin Lessler¹², Cécile Viboud⁶, Shaun Truelove⁷

Affiliations

¹ Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD, USA. Electronic address: sloo2@jhu.edu.
² Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
³ Public Health Dynamics Lab, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
⁴ Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
⁵ Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD, USA.
⁶ Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
⁷ Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD, USA.
⁸ UNC Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
⁹ Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, USA.
¹¹ Eastern Ecological Science Center at the Patuxent Research Refuge, US Geological Survey, Laurel, MD, USA.
¹² Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; UNC Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.

PMID: 38184954
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100738

Abstract

Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to guide pandemic planning and decision-making in the context of high uncertainty. This effort was born out of an attempt to coordinate, synthesize and effectively use the unprecedented amount of predictive modeling that emerged throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we describe the history of this massive collective research effort, the process of convening and maintaining an open modeling hub active over multiple years, and attempt to provide a blueprint for future efforts. We detail the process of generating 17 rounds of scenarios and projections at different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, and disseminating results to the public health community and lay public. We also highlight how SMH was expanded to generate influenza projections during the 2022-23 season. We identify key impacts of SMH results on public health and draw lessons to improve future collaborative modeling efforts, research on scenario projections, and the interface between models and policy.

MeSH terms

COVID-19* / epidemiology
Humans
Influenza, Human* / epidemiology
Pandemics
Policy
Public Health

Grants and funding

U24 GM132013/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States