Trends in Monkeypox transmission: Investigation into 30 most affected countries

Salman A Cheema; Tahir Munir; Kalim Ullah; Tanveer Kifayat; Abdur Rahman; Walid Emam; Yusra Tashkandy; Saima K Khosa; Ahmad Zubair

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21980

Trends in Monkeypox transmission: Investigation into 30 most affected countries

Heliyon. 2023 Nov 22;10(1):e21980. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21980. eCollection 2024 Jan 15.

Authors

Salman A Cheema¹, Tahir Munir², Kalim Ullah³, Tanveer Kifayat⁴, Abdur Rahman⁵, Walid Emam⁶, Yusra Tashkandy⁶, Saima K Khosa⁷, Ahmad Zubair⁸

Affiliations

¹ Department of Applied Sciences, School of Sciences, National Textile University Faisalabad, Pakistan.
² Department of Anaesthesiology, the Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi 74800, Pakistan.
³ Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University School of Health Sciences, Pakistan.
⁴ Department of Computer Sciences, Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan.
⁵ Institute for Global Health and Development, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
⁶ Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Faculty of Science, King Saud University, P.O. Box 2455, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia.
⁷ Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada.
⁸ Department of Statistics, ‏Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan.

Abstract

This research is based on the analysis of Monkeypox transmission, from may 7, 2022 to October 11, 2022, in 30 most affected countries around the globe. The most affected countries are selected through the cut point of at least 100 reported confirmed cases of infected persons over the aforementioned time span. We novely argue the exhibition of distributional similarities between the viral flow and well known power law in context of this neglected zoonotic disease. Moreover, model-based evidence suggesting the capability of pathogen to spread far and wide around its nucleus, are collected and presented. It is estimated that 70 % of the reported confirmed cases belonged to 20 % of the top most affected countries. Also, 70 % of the reported transmission was inflicted in 34 % of the days of reporting at least one case, on average.