Importance: Despite the increasing prevalence of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN), data on the growth and malignant conversion rates based on long-term surveillance cohorts are limited. Many international guidelines recommend surveillance for benign lesions, but the optimal interval and duration are unclear.
Objective: To determine the optimal surveillance protocol for IPMN and propose which patients may be exempted from surveillance.
Design, setting, and participants: This large-scale, international cohort study examined data of 3825 patients with IPMN treated at 5 tertiary pancreatic centers. Included were patients with branch duct (BD) IPMN who underwent surveillance or surgery between January 1, 1988, and December 31, 2020. After a thorough review, 3656 patients were included in the analytic sample. Changes in cyst size, worrisome features or high-risk stigmata, and malignant conversion rates were assessed. Patients who underwent surveillance over 5 years were compared to suggest discontinuation of surveillance protocol. Clinical data collection began in January 1, 2021, and the mean (SD) follow-up duration was 84 (47.7) months. The data analysis was performed from May 2, 2022, through September 14, 2022.
Exposure: The patients with BD-IPMN were followed up based on International Association of Pancreatology guidelines. Patients with suspicious malignant neoplasms during surveillance underwent surgical resection.
Main outcome and measures: The main outcome of this study was the optimal follow-up interval and duration of BD-IPMN surveillance. The association among cyst size, growth rate, and progression was examined using descriptive statistics.
Results: Of the 3656 patients with BD-IPMN in the analytic sample (1973 [54.0%] female; mean [SD] age, 63.7 [10.2] years), 172 (4.7%) were confirmed to have malignant lesions through surgery. Considering cyst growth, the time to develop worrisome features, and malignant conversion, a 1.5-, 1-, and 0.5-year surveillance interval could be optimal for cysts smaller than 20 mm, 20 to 30 mm, and 30 mm, respectively, after initial short-term (6-month) follow-up. Patients with cysts smaller than 20 mm, no worrisome features, and no growth during 5-year surveillance did not show malignant conversion after 5 years of follow-up and had time to progression of greater than 10 years.
Conclusions: These findings suggest that BD-IPMN surveillance may depend on the size of the cyst and morphologic changes at the initial 6-month follow-up. For patients with small cysts (ie, <20 mm) with no morphologic changes during the initial 5-year surveillance period, surveillance may be discontinued for those unfit for surgery or who have a limited life expectancy of 10 years or less.