Risk factors for early recurrence after radical gastrectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II or III gastric cancer: a multicenter, retrospective study

Abstract

Background: Radical gastrectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy is the standard treatment for stage II or III gastric cancer in Asian countries. Early recurrence during or after adjuvant chemotherapy is associated with poor prognosis; however, risk factors for early recurrence remain unclear.

Methods: In this multicenter, retrospective cohort study including six institutions, we evaluated the clinicopathological factors of 553 patients with gastric cancer undergoing gastrectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy between 2012 and 2016. Patients were divided into the following groups: early recurrence (recurrence during adjuvant chemotherapy or within 6 months after adjuvant chemotherapy completion) and non-early recurrence, which was further divided into late recurrence and no recurrence. Early-recurrence risk factors were investigated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. The chronological changes in the recurrence hazard were also examined for each factor.

Results: Early recurrence and late recurrence occurred in 83 (15.0%) and 73 (13.2%) patients, respectively. Based on the Cox proportional hazards model, a postoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen level of ≥5 ng/mL (hazard ratio: 2.220, 95% confidence interval: 1.089-4.526) and a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio of >1.8 (hazard ratio: 2.408, 95% confidence interval: 1.479-3.92) were identified as independent risk factors of early recurrence, but not late recurrence. The recurrence hazard ratios for neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio significantly decreased over time (P < 0.001) and carcinoembryonic antigen also had the same tendency (P = 0.08).

Conclusions: A carcinoembryonic antigen level of ≥5 ng/mL and a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio of >1.8 are predictors of early recurrence after radical gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II or III gastric cancer.

Keywords: adjuvant chemotherapy; early recurrence; gastric cancer.