As of November 2023, 140 World Health Organization (WHO) member states had introduced human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in their routine immunization schedules. Despite a continuously increasing demand from countries across all income groups, supply constraints, COVID-19 pandemic disruptions, and other factors have slowed the pace of introduction, particularly in low-resource settings. Using a population-based forecasting methodology and leveraging the WHO's yearly vaccine supply data collection, we updated global demand and supply projections for the HPV vaccine for the period of 2022-2031. The analysis aimed at clarifying the magnitude of the challenges to bringing in equitable access to HPV vaccines, which can hinder the achievement of the Global Strategy for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer. The results of this analysis show that the risk of HPV shortages has significantly decreased, and global supply is now, under normal circumstances, sufficient to meet global demand. In the long term, HPV supply will be more than sufficient to meet the Global Strategy's goal of 90% of girls fully vaccinated with the HPV vaccine by the age of 15 years. Nonetheless, paying attention to the formulation of policies and carefully managing demand and supply will be required to ensure the long-term sustainability of the HPV vaccine program.
Keywords: cervical cancer; demand forecast; human papilloma virus; supply; vaccine.