European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2024 with focus on colorectal cancer

Abstract

Background: We predicted cancer mortality figures for 2024 for the European Union (EU), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We focused on mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC).

Materials and methods: Based on cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases from 1970 until the most available year, we predicted deaths and age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 2024 for all cancers and the 10 most common cancer sites. We fitted a linear regression to the most recent trend segment identified by the joinpoint model. The number of avoided deaths since the peak in 1988-2024 was estimated for all cancers and CRC.

Results: We predicted 1 270 800 cancer deaths for 2024 in the EU, corresponding to ASRs of 123.2/100 000 men (-6.5% versus 2018) and 79.0/100 000 women (-4.3%). Since 1988, about 6.2 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU and 1.3 million in the UK. Pancreatic cancer displayed unfavorable predicted rates for both sexes (+1.6% in men and +4.0% in women) and lung cancer for women (+0.3%). The focus on CRC showed falls in mortality at all ages in the EU, by 4.8% for men and 9.5% for women since 2018. The largest declines in CRC mortality are predicted among those 70+ years old. In the UK, projected ASRs for CRC at all ages are favorable for men (-3.4% versus 2018) but not for women (+0.3%). Below age 50 years, CRC mortality showed unfavorable trends in Italy and the UK, in Poland and Spain for men, and in Germany for women.

Conclusions: Predicted cancer mortality rates remain favorable in the EU and the UK, mainly in males due to earlier smoking cessation compared to females, underlining the persisting major role of tobacco on cancer mortality in Europe. Attention should be paid to the predicted increases in CRC mortality in young adults.

Keywords: COVID-19; Europe; cancer; colorectal cancer; mortality rates; prediction model.