Avoiding ecosystem and social impacts of hydropower, wind, and solar in Southern Africa's low-carbon electricity system

Grace C Wu; Ranjit Deshmukh; Anne Trainor; Anagha Uppal; A F M Kamal Chowdhury; Carlos Baez; Erik Martin; Jonathan Higgins; Ana Mileva; Kudakwashe Ndhlukula

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-45313-z

Avoiding ecosystem and social impacts of hydropower, wind, and solar in Southern Africa's low-carbon electricity system

Nat Commun. 2024 Feb 5;15(1):1083. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-45313-z.

Authors

Grace C Wu^#¹, Ranjit Deshmukh^#^{2

3}, Anne Trainor⁴, Anagha Uppal⁵, A F M Kamal Chowdhury^{6

7}, Carlos Baez⁵, Erik Martin⁸, Jonathan Higgins⁹, Ana Mileva¹⁰, Kudakwashe Ndhlukula¹¹

Affiliations

¹ Environmental Studies, Bren Hall, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA. gracecwu@ucsb.edu.
² Environmental Studies, Bren Hall, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA. rdeshmukh@ucsb.edu.
³ Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA. rdeshmukh@ucsb.edu.
⁴ Africa Program, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, 22203, USA.
⁵ Department of Geography, Ellison Hall, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA.
⁶ Environmental Studies, Bren Hall, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA.
⁷ Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, USA.
⁸ Center for Resilient Conservation Science, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, 22203, USA.
⁹ Global Freshwater Team, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, 22203, USA.
¹⁰ Blue Marble Analytics, San Francisco, CA, USA.
¹¹ SADC Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (SACREEE), 11 Dr Agostinho Neto Road, Windhoek, Namibia.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

The scale at which low-carbon electricity will need to be deployed to meet economic growth, electrification, and climate goals in Africa is unprecedented, yet the potential land use and freshwater impacts from this massive build-out of energy infrastructure is poorly understood. In this study, we characterize low-impact onshore wind, solar photovoltaics, and hydropower potential in Southern Africa and identify the cost-optimal mix of electricity generation technologies under different sets of socio-environmental land use and freshwater constraints and carbon targets. We find substantial wind and solar potential after applying land use protections, but about 40% of planned or proposed hydropower projects face socio-environmental conflicts. Applying land and freshwater protections results in more wind, solar, and battery capacity and less hydropower capacity compared to scenarios without protections. While a carbon target favors hydropower, the amount of cost-competitively selected hydropower is at most 45% of planned or proposed hydropower capacity in any scenario-and is only 25% under socio-environmental protections. Achieving both carbon targets and socio-environmental protections results in system cost increases of 3-6%. In the absence of land and freshwater protections, environmental and social impacts from new hydropower development could be significant.