Assessing the impact of COVID-19 interventions on the hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study

Li Zhang; Fen Yang; Zhihua Zhu; Weilin Zeng; Zuhua Rong; Jianxiong Hu; Xing Li; Jianguo Zhao; Biao Zeng; Yihan Li; Yi Quan; Qian Zhang; Zitong Huang; Yuye Li; Xing Huang; Wenyuan Zheng; Jiaqing Xu; Yan Li; Qing Chen; Jianpeng Xiao; Meng Zhang

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2023.1307321

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 interventions on the hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study

Front Public Health. 2024 Jan 11:11:1307321. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1307321. eCollection 2023.

Authors

Li Zhang^#^{1

2}, Fen Yang^#^{3

4}, Zhihua Zhu², Weilin Zeng², Zuhua Rong², Jianxiong Hu², Xing Li², Jianguo Zhao², Biao Zeng^{3

4}, Yihan Li^{1

2}, Yi Quan^{1

2}, Qian Zhang^{2

5}, Zitong Huang^{3

6}, Yuye Li², Xing Huang^{1

2}, Wenyuan Zheng^{2

7}, Jiaqing Xu^{2

5}, Yan Li^{3

4}, Qing Chen¹, Jianpeng Xiao^{1

2}, Meng Zhang^{3

4}

Affiliations

¹ School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
² Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
³ Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
⁴ Guangdong Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
⁵ School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China.
⁶ School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
⁷ School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

Background: The non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 may have affected the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). We aimed to assess the impact of the NPIs on HFMD in the high epidemic area of HFMD, Guangdong Province.

Methods: The data of HFMD cases, etiological information, and meteorological factors in Guangdong from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2021, were collected. Using a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model integrated counterfactual framework, we assessed the effect of NPIs on HFMD by different intervention periods, populations (gender, age, occupation), and cities. We further explored the correlation between the reduction of HFMD and socioeconomic factors in 21 cities.

Results: A total of 351,217 HFMD cases were reported and 455,327 cases were averted in Guangdong Province during 2020-2021 with a reduction of 84.94% (95%CI: 81.63-87.22%) in 2020 and 29.49% (95%CI: 15.26-39.54%) in 2021. The impact of NPIs on HFMD differed by age and gender. The effects of NPIs were more remarkable for children aged 0-2 years and scattered children. We found that the relative reductions in 21 cities were related to the composition ratio of children and COVID-19 incidence.

Conclusion: The reduction of HFMD incidence was significantly associated with COVID-19 NPIs, and school closure was an effective intervention to prevent HFMD outbreaks. Our findings will contribute to the development of HFMD prevention and control measures.

Keywords: BSTS; COVID-19; HFMD; SARS-CoV-2; impact; non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Bayes Theorem
COVID-19* / epidemiology
COVID-19* / prevention & control
Child
China / epidemiology
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease* / epidemiology
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease* / prevention & control
Humans
Incidence

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (82373636), Guangdong Natural Science and Technology Project (2023A1515011921), the Key Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province (2022A1111090004), and Medical Science and Technology Research Fund of Guangdong Province (B2023033).