Deep Learning-Based Psoriasis Assessment: Harnessing Clinical Trial Imaging for Accurate Psoriasis Area Severity Index Prediction

Abstract

Introduction: Image-based machine learning holds great promise for facilitating clinical care; however, the datasets often used for model training differ from the interventional clinical trial-based findings frequently used to inform treatment guidelines. Here, we draw on longitudinal imaging of psoriasis patients undergoing treatment in the Ultima 2 clinical trial (NCT02684357), including 2,700 body images with psoriasis area severity index (PASI) annotations by uniformly trained dermatologists.

Methods: An image-processing workflow integrating clinical photos of multiple body regions into one model pipeline was developed, which we refer to as the "One-Step PASI" framework due to its simultaneous body detection, lesion detection, and lesion severity classification. Group-stratified cross-validation was performed with 145 deep convolutional neural network models combined in an ensemble learning architecture.

Results: The highest-performing model demonstrated a mean absolute error of 3.3, Lin's concordance correlation coefficient of 0.86, and Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90 across a wide range of PASI scores comprising disease classifications of clear skin, mild, and moderate-to-severe disease. Within-person, time-series analysis of model performance demonstrated that PASI predictions closely tracked the trajectory of physician scores from severe to clear skin without systematically over- or underestimating PASI scores or percent changes from baseline.

Conclusion: This study demonstrates the potential of image processing and deep learning to translate otherwise inaccessible clinical trial data into accurate, extensible machine learning models to assess therapeutic efficacy.

Keywords: Accurate PASI prediction; Clinical trial imaging; Deep convolutional neural network; Deep learning; Psoriasis assessment.