Aim: Due to aging populations the incidence of aortic valve stenosis (AVS) is increasing steeply. Since no medical therapy is available but only surgical interventions, it is highly warranted to identify modifiable risk factors for early prevention. The aim of the study was to investigate the associations of cardiovascular risk factors with AVS and to create 10-year absolute risk scores for use in primary prevention.
Methods: In the Copenhagen General Population Study (N=93,979) lifestyle data, biochemical measures, and confounders were assessed at baseline. Risk factors with the strongest association with aortic valve stenosis from Cox regression analyses were included in ten-year risk prediction models. Ten-year absolute risk scores were conducted using the method of Fine-Gray proportional sub-hazards models, accounting for competing events.
Results: 1,132 individuals developed AVS during follow-up. Of well-known cardiovascular risk factors, those that associated with AVS included increasing levels of remnant cholesterol, triglycerides, lipoprotein(a), systolic blood pressure, and body mass index, low adherence to Danish dietary guidelines, current smoking, high alcohol consumption, lipid-lowering therapy and diabetes mellitus. Ten-year absolute risk scores increased when compiling the most important risk factors for AVS; age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, lipoprotein(a), and diabetes. Ten-year absolute risk increased from <1% to 19%.
Conclusions: The presence of cardiovascular risk factors is associated with AVS, supporting that this disease, at least partly, may be modifiable through lifestyle changes. Risk charts combining cardiovascular risk factors have the potential to identify high-risk individuals, offering opportunities for preventive strategies. (Word count 245).
Keywords: Aortic valve stenosis; blood pressure; body mass index; epidemiology; heart valve; lipids; prevention; risk score.
This study investigates the impact of common cardiovascular risk factors on aortic valve stenosis (AVS) and introduces a risk score to predict the likelihood of developing AVS within ten years. We identified strong links between AVS and several risk factors, including lipid traits, high blood pressure, obesity, smoking, increased alcohol intake, low adherence to dietary guidelines, and diabetes. A ten-year risk score combining age, sex, body mass index, blood pressure, the lipid trait lipoprotein(a), and diabetes estimates an individual's future risk of AVS, which can range from 1% to 19%. Such risk scores enable identification of individuals at highest risk, where early prevention is most effective.
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