Gender-specific aspects of socialisation and risk of cardiovascular disease among community-dwelling older adults: a prospective cohort study using machine learning algorithms and a conventional method

J Epidemiol Community Health. 2024 Nov 11;78(12):737-744. doi: 10.1136/jech-2023-221860.

Abstract

Background: Gender influences cardiovascular disease (CVD) through norms, social relations, roles and behaviours. This study identified gender-specific aspects of socialisation associated with CVD.

Methods: A longitudinal study was conducted, involving 9936 (5,231 women and 4705 men) initially healthy, community-dwelling Australians aged 70 years or more from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study and ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons, with a median follow-up time of 6.4 years. Variable categorisation, variable selection (using machine learning (ML) models; Elastic Net and extreme gradient boosting) and Cox-regression were employed separately by binary gender to identity socialisation factors (n=25 considered) associated with CVD.

Results: Different socialisation factors were identified using the ML models. In the Cox model, for both genders, being married/partnered was associated with a reduced risk of CVD (men: HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.96; women: HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95). For men, having 3-8 relatives they felt close to and could call on for help (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.99; reference <3 relatives), having 3-8 relatives they felt at ease talking with about private matters (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.90; reference <3 relatives) or playing games such as chess or cards (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.00) was associated with reduced risk of CVD. For women, living with others (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.91) or having ≥3 friends they felt at ease talking with about private matters (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95; reference <3 friends) was associated with a lower risk of CVD.

Conclusions: This study demonstrates the need to prioritise gender-specific social factors to improve cardiovascular health in older adults.

Keywords: CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; GERIATRICS; GERONTOLOGY; PUBLIC HEALTH; SOCIAL CAPITAL.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Algorithms
  • Australia
  • Cardiovascular Diseases* / prevention & control
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Independent Living*
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Machine Learning*
  • Male
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Sex Factors