Risk factors for long COVID syndrome in postmenopausal women with previously reported diagnosis of COVID-19

Abstract

Purpose: Long COVID-19 syndrome occurs in 10-20 % of people after a confirmed/probable SARS-COV-2 infection; new symptoms begin within three months of COVID-19 diagnosis and last > 8 weeks. Little is known about risk factors for long COVID, particularly in older people who are at greater risk of COVID complications.

Methods: Data are from Women's Health Initiative (WHI) postmenopausal women who completed COVID surveys that included questions on whether they had ever been diagnosed with COVID and length and nature of symptoms. Long COVID was classified using standard consensus criteria. Using WHI demographic and health data collected at study enrollment (1993-98) through the present day, machine learning identified the top 20 risk factors for long COVID. These variables were tested in logistic regression models.

Results: Of n = 37,280 survey respondents, 1237 (mean age = 83 years) reported a positive COVID-19 test and 425 (30 %) reported long COVID. Symptoms included an array of neurological, cardio-pulmonary, musculoskeletal, and general fatigue, and malaise symptoms. Long COVID risk factors included weight loss, physical and mobility limitations, and specific heath conditions (e.g., history of heart valve procedure, rheumatoid arthritis).

Conclusions: Knowledge of risk factors for long COVID may be the first step in understanding the etiology of this complex disease.

Keywords: Chronic disease; Long COVID; Machine learning; Postmenopausal women.