Slower but deeper community change: Intrinsic dynamics regulate anthropogenic impacts on species temporal turnover

Abstract

Understanding the mechanisms behind biodiversity dynamics is central to assessing and forecasting anthropogenic impacts on ecological communities. However, the manner in which external environmental drivers act in concert with intrinsic ecological processes to influence local temporal turnover is currently largely unexplored. Here, we determine how human impacts affect multiple metrics of bird community turnover to establish the ecological mechanisms behind compositional change. We used US Breeding Bird Survey data to calculate transect-level rates of three measures of temporal species turnover: (1) "short-term" (initial rate of decline of Sørensen similarity), (2) "long-term" (asymptotic Sørensen similarity), and (3) "throughput" (overall species accumulation rate from species-time relationship exponents) over 2692 transects across 27 regional habitat types. We then hierarchically fit linear models to estimate the effect of anthropogenic impact on these turnover metrics, using the Human Modification Index proxy, while accounting for observed species richness, the size of the species pool, and annual environmental variability. We found broadly consistent impacts of increased anthropogenic pressures across diverse habitat types. The Human Modification Index was associated with greater turnover at long timescales, but marginally slower short-term turnover. The species "throughput" (accumulation rate) was not notably influenced. Examining anthropogenic impacts on different aspects of species turnover in combination allows greater ecological insight. Observed human impacts on short-term turnover were the opposite of existing expectations and suggest humans are disrupting the background turnover of these systems, rather than simply driving rapid directed turnover. The increased long-term turnover without concurrent increases in species accumulation implies human impacts lead to shifts in species occurrence frequency rather than simply greater arrival of "new" species. These results highlight the role of intrinsic dynamics and caution against simple interpretations of increased species turnover as reflections of environmental change.

Keywords: anthropogenic pressure; beta‐diversity; birds; breeding bird survey; citizen science; community dynamics; temporal turnover.