COVID-19 pandemic interventions reshaped the global dispersal of seasonal influenza viruses

Science. 2024 Nov 8;386(6722):eadq3003. doi: 10.1126/science.adq3003. Epub 2024 Nov 8.

Abstract

The global dynamics of seasonal influenza viruses inform the design of surveillance, intervention, and vaccination strategies. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a singular opportunity to evaluate how influenza circulation worldwide was perturbed by human behavioral changes. We combine molecular, epidemiological, and international travel data and find that the pandemic's onset led to a shift in the intensity and structure of international influenza lineage movement. During the pandemic, South Asia played an important role as a phylogenetic trunk location of influenza A viruses, whereas West Asia maintained the circulation of influenza B/Victoria. We explore drivers of influenza lineage dynamics across the pandemic period and reasons for the possible extinction of the B/Yamagata lineage. After a period of 3 years, the intensity of among-region influenza lineage movements returned to pre-pandemic levels, with the exception of B/Yamagata, after the recovery of global air traffic, highlighting the robustness of global lineage dispersal patterns to substantial perturbation.

MeSH terms

  • Asia / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / prevention & control
  • COVID-19* / virology
  • Humans
  • Influenza A virus / genetics
  • Influenza B virus* / classification
  • Influenza B virus* / genetics
  • Influenza B virus* / isolation & purification
  • Influenza, Human* / epidemiology
  • Influenza, Human* / virology
  • Pandemics / prevention & control
  • Phylogeny
  • SARS-CoV-2 / genetics
  • Seasons*
  • Travel