Clinical outcomes of untreated adults living with chronic hepatitis B in The Gambia: an analysis of data from the prospective PROLIFICA cohort study

Abstract

Background: Expanding antiviral therapy to people with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection who are ineligible to receive treatment under current international criteria has been increasingly debated. Evidence to support this approach is scarce, especially in Africa. We aimed to address this knowledge gap by analysing the clinical outcomes of people with chronic hepatitis B in The Gambia who were untreated and ineligible for antiviral therapy at diagnosis.

Methods: Between Dec 7, 2011, and Jan 24, 2014, we implemented the prospective PROLIFICA cohort study in The Gambia. Participants with chronic hepatitis B aged 16 years or older were recruited after large-scale, community-based HBV screening; blood bank-based HBV screening in Edward Francis Small Teaching Hospital, Banjul; and prospective follow-up of HBsAg-positive individuals via historical, population-based HBsAg serosurveys in two rural villages (Keneba and Manduar). Participants underwent HBV serology and other laboratory tests, fasting FibroScan, and abdominal ultrasound. Survival data were collected between Dec 7, 2011, and Aug 17, 2021. Between Oct 9, 2018, and Aug 17, 2021, all HBsAg-positive participants enrolled in the 2011-14 cohort were invited for a reassessment. For this analysis, we included HBsAg-positive people and excluded all participants who were eligible for treatment according to the 2012 European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) criteria at baseline and those who were treated irrespective of treatment eligibility. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, assessed in all treatment-ineligible and treatment-naive participants with follow-up data. The secondary outcome, analysed in those who were reassessed, was disease progression, defined as becoming eligible for antivirals per 2017 EASL criteria; having an increase in liver fibrosis of at least one stage; or having a clinical diagnosis of hepatic decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma.

Findings: 943 HBsAg-positive people with chronic hepatitis B were recruited to the PROLIFICA study. Of these 943, 58 (6%) fulfilled 2012 EASL treatment eligibility criteria at baseline, 35 (4%) were ineligible for treatment but received antiviral therapy, and 44 (5%) were immediately lost to follow-up. Thus, 806 (85%) participants were analysed for the primary outcome (486 [60%] were male and 320 [40%] were female). After a median follow-up of 6·11 years (IQR 5·34-6·80), 708 (88%) participants were confirmed to be alive at last surveillance, 71 (9%) were lost to follow-up and were censored, and 27 (3%) died, giving an all-cause mortality rate of 582 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 399-849). Of the 27 people who died, five (19%) had liver-related deaths. Of 708 participants confirmed to be alive, 544 (77%) attended follow-up and were assessed for the secondary outcome. Disease progression occurred in 36 (7%) participants: five (1%) became newly eligible for antiviral therapy per EASL 2017 criteria without liver fibrosis progression; 18 (3%) had liver fibrosis progression alone; 13 (2%) had liver fibrosis progression and newly fulfilled the treatment criteria; and none had hepatic decompensation or developed hepatocellular carcinoma. In multivariable analysis adjusted for sex and age, only a baseline HBV DNA of 20 000 IU/mL or more, compared with the baseline HBV DNA of 2000 IU/mL or lower as the reference, was significantly associated with liver disease progression (odds ratio 5·39, 95% CI 1·37-21·23).

Interpretation: Among people with chronic hepatitis B who were ineligible for antiviral therapy in The Gambia, all-cause mortality and liver disease progression were low. The clinical benefit of expanding antiviral therapy in this subgroup of patients remains uncertain.

Funding: European Commission, Medical Research Council UK Research and Innovation, and Gilead Sciences.