We propose a method for estimating methane emission durations on oil and gas sites, referred to as the Probabilistic Duration Model (PDM), that uses concentration data from continuous monitoring systems (CMS). The PDM probabilistically addresses a key limitation of CMS: nondetect times, or the times when wind blows emitted methane away from the CMS sensors (resulting in no detections). Output from the PDM can be used to bound the duration of emissions detected by survey-based technologies, such as plane or satellites, that have limited ability to characterize durations due to the typically low temporal frequency (e.g., quarterly) at which they observe a given source. Linear regression indicates that the PDM has a bias of -4.9% (R2 = 0.80) when evaluated on blinded controlled releases at the Methane Emissions Technology Evaluation Center (METEC), with 86.8% of estimates within a factor of 2× error from the true duration. We apply the PDM to a typical production site in the Appalachian Basin and use it to bound the duration of survey-based measurements. We find that failing to account for CMS nondetect times results in underestimated emission durations of up to a factor of 65× (6400%) on this site.
© 2024 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society.