Deciphering decadal urban ozone trends from historical records since 1980

Haolin Wang; Xiao Lu; Paul I Palmer; Lin Zhang; Keding Lu; Ke Li; Tatsuya Nagashima; Ja-Ho Koo; Hiroshi Tanimoto; Haichao Wang; Meng Gao; Cheng He; Kai Wu; Shaojia Fan; Yuanhang Zhang

doi:10.1093/nsr/nwae369

Deciphering decadal urban ozone trends from historical records since 1980

Natl Sci Rev. 2024 Oct 24;11(11):nwae369. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwae369. eCollection 2024 Nov.

Authors

Haolin Wang^{1

2

3}, Xiao Lu^{1

2}, Paul I Palmer^{3

4}, Lin Zhang⁵, Keding Lu⁶, Ke Li⁷, Tatsuya Nagashima⁸, Ja-Ho Koo⁹, Hiroshi Tanimoto⁸, Haichao Wang^{1

2}, Meng Gao¹⁰, Cheng He^{1

2}, Kai Wu¹¹, Shaojia Fan^{1

2}, Yuanhang Zhang⁶

Affiliations

¹ School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Zhuhai 519082, China.
² Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, China.
³ School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, UK.
⁴ National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, UK.
⁵ Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
⁶ State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, The State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Ozone Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
⁷ Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
⁸ National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan.
⁹ Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, South Korea.
¹⁰ Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, China.
¹¹ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.

Abstract

Ozone pollution is a major environmental threat to human health. Timely assessment of ozone trends is crucial for informing environmental policy. Here we show that for the most recent decade (2013-2022) in the northern hemisphere, warm-season (April-September) mean daily 8-h average maximum ozone increases much faster in urban regions with top ozone levels (mainly in the North China Plain, 1.2 ± 1.3 ppbv year^-1) than in other, low-ozone regions (0.2 ± 0.9 ppbv year^-1). These trends widen the ozone differences across urban regions, and increase extreme pollution levels and health threats from a global perspective. Comparison of historical trends in different urban regions reveals that ozone increases in China during 2013-2022 differ in magnitude and mechanisms to historical periods in other regions since 1980. This reflects a unique chemical environment characterized by exceptionally high nitrogen oxides and aerosol concentrations, where reducing ozone precursor emissions leads to substantial ozone increase. Ozone increase in China has slowed down in 2018-2022 compared to 2013-2017, driven by ongoing emission reductions, but with ozone-favorable weather conditions. Historical ozone evolution in Japan and South Korea indicates that ozone increases should be suppressed with continuous emission reduction. Increasing temperature and associated wildfires have also reversed ozone decreases in the USA and Europe, with anthropogenic ozone control slowing down in recent decades.

Keywords: air quality; surface ozone; trends.