Scenarios, not shortage forecasts, are key to better workforce policy

Melinda J B Buntin; Mingxin Chen; David I Auerbach

doi:10.1093/haschl/qxae149

Scenarios, not shortage forecasts, are key to better workforce policy

Health Aff Sch. 2024 Nov 13;2(11):qxae149. doi: 10.1093/haschl/qxae149. eCollection 2024 Nov.

Authors

Melinda J B Buntin^{1

2}, Mingxin Chen³, David I Auerbach⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Health Policy and Management, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, United States.
² Carey Business School, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21202, United States.
³ Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, United States.
⁴ Research and Cost Trends, Massachusetts Health Policy Commission, Boston, MA 02109, United States.

Abstract

Current and projected shortages in the US health workforce have prompted policymakers to propose reforms to Medicare Graduate Medical Education (GME) and nursing programs. However, researchers have historically faced challenges in accurately predicting workforce trends; physician and nurse supply and demand all grew faster than expected over the past 2 decades. These discrepancies highlight the need for scenario-based workforce planning and projection models that estimate how a policy intervention would affect the workforce outcome of interest. In addition, policy options modeled should address not only increasing provider-to-population ratios but also improving health outcomes through innovative payment and care models.

Keywords: health workforce policy; health workforce projection; nurse shortages; physician shortages; scenario-based modeling.