Data-driven analysis of the effect of screening and treatment on the spread of HIV in developing and developed countries

Front Public Health. 2024 Nov 14:12:1437678. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1437678. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Introduction: In this study, we used a mathematical epidemic model to explore the status of the HIV epidemic in the USA and Pakistan. In addition to studying the dynamics of the model, we fitted the model with recent data to estimate the parameters describing the epidemic in both countries.

Results: Our estimation shows that in the USA, the reproduction number is 0.9688 (0.9684, 0.9694); if the reproduction number is maintained at this level, it would take a long time to eradicate HIV entirely. Meanwhile, it is 2.2599 (2.2556, 2.2656) in Pakistan, which is due to a lack of awareness in the confirmed group and a lower rate of maintained treatment. We also estimated the rate of vertical transmission, which plays a significant role in Pakistan but not in the USA.

Discussion: We conclude that improving the screening rate and educating people would be effective for controlling HIV in Pakistan, whereas improved screening rate in the USA can eradicate HIV faster.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS; horizontal and vertical transmission; maximum likelihood method; screening; treatment.

MeSH terms

  • Developed Countries / statistics & numerical data
  • Developing Countries*
  • Epidemics
  • Female
  • HIV Infections* / diagnosis
  • HIV Infections* / epidemiology
  • HIV Infections* / prevention & control
  • HIV Infections* / transmission
  • Humans
  • Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical / prevention & control
  • Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical / statistics & numerical data
  • Mass Screening* / statistics & numerical data
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pakistan / epidemiology
  • United States / epidemiology

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean Government (MSIP) (2022R1A5A1033624, 2021R1A2B5B03087097) and Global—Learning and Academic research institution for Master's·PhD students, and Postdocs (LAMP) Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Ministry of Education (No. RS-2023-00301938).