Simulating the changes in ecosystem service value induced by land use changes in the peak cluster depression basin of southwestern Guangxi under multiple scenarios is of great importance for ensuring ecological security in the basin and enhancing regional ecosystem service value capabilities. Based on the CA-Logistic-Markov model, the land use of the study area was simulated under natural development, food security, and ecological protection scenarios in 2030. The ecosystem service value was calculated under each scenario using the equivalent factor correction model, and the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of the ecosystem service value in the peak cluster depression basin of southwestern Guangxi were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed as follows： ① Compared with the current situation of land use in 2020 and the predicted simulated land use in 2020, the standard Kappa index was 0.917, the location Kappa index was 0.952, and the numerical Kappa index was 0.958. In the simulation of the land use pattern of the peak cluster basin in southwest Guangxi in 2030, the CA-Markov model had high accuracy and reference-ability. ② Ecosystem service values in the study area for the periods 2000-2020 were 270.881 billion, 275.78 billion, and 278.332 billion yuan, indicating an overall upward trend. ③ The value of ecosystem services in the natural development, the food security, and the ecological protection scenarios was 282 138 million, 273 206 million, and 284 143 million, respectively. The study area exhibited a spatial distribution of ecosystem service values with higher values in the northwest and lower values in the southeast. In comparison to that in 2020, the ecosystem service value significantly decreased under the food security scenario, reflecting ecosystem degradation. Meanwhile, ecosystem service values increased under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios, signifying an improvement in ecological environmental quality. ④ Ecosystem service value hot spots and cold spots with high confidence had strong clustering and the hot spots were mainly concentrated in the northwestern mountainous area, whereas the cold spots with high confidence were mainly distributed in the southeastern plain area of the study area. The research results revealed the spatiotemporal pattern of land use change and ecosystem service value in the peak cluster depression basin of southwestern Guangxi under multiple scenarios, which can provide scientific basis for optimizing land use structure and spatial pattern and enhancing ecosystem services.
Keywords: CA-Markov model; ecosystem service value; land use change; multi-scenario simulation; peak cluster depression basin of southwest Guangxi.