The energy resources are rich, and the ecological environment is fragile in Gansu-Qinghai regions, which are facing problems in the coordinated development of green as well as low carbon transformation and high-quality economy. Based on the reality of Gansu-Qinghai regions, this study deeply analyzed the characteristics of regional carbon emissions； constructed the system dynamics model between carbon emissions and population, economy, energy, and policy； clarified the relationship between them； and probed into the future green development path. The results showed that： ① In recent years, the total and per capita carbon emissions in Gansu-Qinghai regions have been on the rise. From the perspective of energy structure, coal consumption was the most important source of carbon emissions, and the industrial sector had the greatest contribution from the point of view of sector contribution. ② Compared with the baseline scenario, by 2030, carbon emissions of Gansu Province could be reduced by 14% and 25%, and those of Qinghai Province could be reduced by 26% and 38% under the optimized and strengthened scenarios, respectively. ③ Compared with the optimization scenario, by 2030, carbon emissions of Gansu Province could be reduced by 5.39%, 3.53%, 2.74%, and 0.74%, and those of Qinghai Province could be reduced by 7.43%, 5.67%, 2.89%, and 0.26% under the scenarios of structural, scale, technological, and awareness strengthening, respectively. ④ According to the resource endowment of Gansu-Qinghai regions, strengthening policies to promote green and low-carbon development, accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading to help high-quality development, and promoting the coordinated development of ecological protection and pollution reduction will help to promote the realization of "double carbon."
Keywords: Gansu-Qinghai region; carbon emission; emission reduction potential; green development; system dynamics.