Background: The purpose of this retrospective review was to determine whether a number of clinicopathologic factors (age, gender, type of exenteration, tumor extent, adjuvant therapy, tumor DNA ploidy, and S-phase fraction) that could be determined before operation were useful in predicting survival in patients undergoing pelvic exenteration for rectal cancer.
Methods: Between 1983 and 1992, 40 patients (15 male and 25 female) at our institution underwent pelvic exenteration for rectal adenocarcinoma in which tumor-free pathologic margins were obtained. Twenty-nine patients presented with primary tumors; 11 had recurrent disease. A total exenteration was performed in 20 patients, posterior exenteration in 18 patients, and an anterior exenteration in 2 patients.
Results: By multivariate (Cox proportional hazards regression) analysis, age, preoperative chemoradiation therapy, and an S phase of 10% or greater were found to be significant predictors of survival. Age older than 55 years was associated with a relative risk for cancer-related death (RR) of 0.13 (p = 0.02), and chemoradiation had an RR of 0.05 (p = 0.01), indicating their beneficial effect. An S-phase fraction of 10% or greater had an RR of 16.97 (p = 0.03), indicating a poor survival. The clinicopathologic factors listed above were used to derive a prognostic index (PI). A PI of less than 1.37 was associated with a 5-year survival rate of 65% (low risk), whereas patients with a PI of 1.37 or greater had a 5-year survival rate of 20% (high risk) (p = 0.005).
Conclusions: These results indicate that adjuvant chemoradiation may significantly improve survival in patients who require pelvic exenteration for resection of locally advanced rectal carcinoma. An S-phase fraction of 10% or greater is also predictive of a poor outcome. Use of these factors allowed the generation of a PI that identifies high- and low-risk patients. Consideration of the ability to deliver chemoradiation and the determinates of the tumor S-phase fraction in patients requiring pelvic exenteration for rectal cancer may be helpful in predicting outcome and planning therapy.