Identification of inexpensive and technically simple immunological tests useful in predicting the progression to AIDS in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients would be especially welcome in developing countries, in which 80% of HIV-infected patients reside and health budgets are low. In the current study, we evaluated CD4+ and total lymphocyte counts and the concentrations in serum of beta 2-microglobulin, p24 antigen, and immunoglobulin A (IgA) as predictors of disease progression in 74 Panamanian HIV-positive patients and 50 HIV-negative healthy individuals. Total lymphocyte and CD4(+)-cell counts for AIDS patients (1,451 +/- 811 cells/microliters, P < 0.001, and 238 +/- 392 cells/microliters, P < 0.0001, respectively and asymptomatic patients (2,393 +/- 664 cells/microliters, P > 0.05, and 784 +/- 475 cells/microliters, P < 0.001, respectively) were lower than those observed for healthy subjects (2,596 +/- 631 cells/microliters and 1,120 +/- 296 cells/microliters, respectively). The levels of beta 2-microglobulin and IgA in serum were significantly elevated in patients with AIDS (5.7 +/- 3.6mg/liter, P < 0.001, and 541 +/- 265 mg/dl, P < 0.0002, respectively) and asymptomatic infected subjects (3.4 +/- 2.1 mg/liter, P = 0.001, and 436 +/- 216 mg/dl, P < 0.0001, respectively) compared with the levels in healthy subjects (2.2 +/- 0.7 mg/liter and 204 +/- 113 mg/dl, respectively). Nonstatistically significant differences (P > 0.05) for concentrations of p24 antigen between asymptomatic infected patients (29 +/- 13 pg/ml) and AIDS patients (40 +/- 23 pg/ml) were observed. Total lymphocyte counts of 1,750 cells/microliters or less, CD4 counts of 200 cells/microliters or less, beta 2-microglobulin concentrations in serum of 4 mg/liter or higher, concentrations of IgA in serum of 450 mg/dl or higher, and the presence in serum of p24 antigen were correlated with elevated risks for developing AIDS. Monitoring both total lymphocytes and beta 2-microglobulin identified 91% of the AIDS patients; these assays may allow reductions in the annual number of CD4(+)-cell evaluations and the costs associated with monitoring both total lymphocytes and beta 2-microglobulin identified 91% of the AIDS patients; these assays may allow reductions in the annual number of CD4(+)-cell evaluations and the costs associated with monitoring the immune status of HIV-positive patients.