Three strikes and you're out: demographic analysis of mandatory prison sentencing

Demography. 1998 Nov;35(4):445-63.

Abstract

Much of the debate about the costs and benefits of "three-strikes" laws for repeat felony offenders is implicitly demographic, relying on unexamined assumptions about prison population dynamics. However, even state-of-the-art analysis has omitted important demographic details. We construct a multistate life-table model of population flows to and from prisons, incorporating age-specific transition rates estimated from administrative data from Florida. We use the multistate life-table model to investigate patterns of prison population growth and aging under many variants of three-strikes laws. Our analysis allows us to quantify these demographic changes and suggests that the aging of prison populations under three-strikes policies will significantly undermine their long-run effectiveness.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Demography*
  • Florida / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Life Tables
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical
  • Mortality / trends
  • Prisoners* / legislation & jurisprudence
  • Prisoners* / statistics & numerical data
  • Public Policy